Orchard Road, Singapore's highest rent retail district attracts
more than seven million foreign visitors each year and recently
the property powerhouses of Singapore and Hong Kong
collaborated on a major expansion with Ion.  

• Orchard Turn
• $45 million renovation on Orchard Road
• Singapore Spending Power
• Hereen Mall
• 313@sommerset
• Ngee Ann City

Rents for ground floor shops in Orchard Rd hold up

The heat is on for Orchard Road retail rents with declining retail sales and substantial new supply completing soon, but Cushman and Wakefield says opportunistic retailers entering the final stages of negotiations for limited remaining choice ground-floor spots in new malls have kept demand for prime retail space firm in the first six weeks of this quarter.

The average monthly rental value for prime street-level retail space on Orchard Road dipped 1.1 per cent in the six weeks between end-Q1 2009 and mid-Q2 2009, lower than the 4.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter contraction seen in Q1 2009.

'Demand for retail space fell into a state of paralysis in Q4 2008 and early 2009 as the global economy was clouded under the tint of uncertainty. However, retailers have now moved into a state of acceptance and we are seeing more leases under negotiation,' says Cushman's associate director of retail consulting and leasing Turner Canning.

Cushman's average monthly rental value for prime ground floor Orchard Road retail space stood at $36.50 per square foot (psf) as at May 15, down 1.1 per cent from $36.90 psf as at end-March 2009. The latest mid-Q2 2009 figure represents a fall of 5.7 per cent since end-2008.

'While there is short-term resilience in prime retail rents, our forecast calls for a decline of a further 5-10 per cent in Orchard prime ground floor retail rentals through to the end of the year because of the generally weak retail outlook,' said Cushman's director of research Ang Choon Beng.

According to Knight Frank figures, ION Orchard, Orchard Central, 313@Somerset and Mandarin Gallery are among the new malls that will add a total 1.8 million square feet of net retail space in Singapore's prime Orchard Road shopping belt from now till mid-2010, a whopping 40 per cent increase from the current stock of 4.5 million sq ft.

Knight Frank managing director Danny Yeo, a veteran in the retail property consultancy sector, noted that despite the pressure from all the new shop space on Orchard Road, rents for ground floor space will probably hold up better than on the upper floors as the number of street-level units facing Orchard Road are limited in supply, whereas the supply on upper floors will be more substantial. 'So the rental drop on upper floors will be more severe than for ground floor space,' he added.

Cushman's Mr Canning reckons that upper floor shop space for new and existing malls on Orchard Road could today be fetching monthly rents of about $20-25 psf, lower than around $25-35 psf a year ago.

Knight Frank's Mr Yeo says it is difficult to quantify decreases in retail rents as traditionally measured on a fixed monthly psf basis. 'Increasingly, we're seeing more leases on a mix comprising slightly lower fixed rentals but also including a percentage of sales. This model cushions tenants when business is not on a level they want and enables them to tide over lean times, but once the market turns around, their total rental bill could be higher as retail sales pick up.'

CB Richard Ellis director (retail services) Letty Lee observes that retailers are increasingly being challenged by the economic downturn which is driving down tourist numbers.

'Coupled with the H1N1 virus, retailers face the prospect of not being able to achieve their projected turnover. The increase in supply is another challenge. Particularly for existing retailers, they will have to brace themselves for fresh competition, fresh concepts and malls incorporating new and different retail experiences,' she added.

Mr Yeo reckons that generally, retail sales at suburban malls have fared better than on Orchard Road over the past six to nine months. Retail turnover of suburban malls may have fallen by 5-15 per cent on average over this period, 'with the impact being a little bit more on fashion retailers than others such as those in groceries and F&B'.

'As for retailers along Orchard Road, for those relying heavily on tourists and big-ticket items, I wouldn't be surprised if their sales drop has been about 15-20 per cent on average over the past six to nine months, although a few may even have experienced a more substantial drop of 20-40 per cent.   - 2009 May 25   BUSINESS TIMES

Orchard Rd rents fall 1.9% in Q4

Prime  Orchard Road rents fell 1.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter to an average of $36.10 per sq ft per month (psf pm) in Q4 2008, property firm CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) said yesterday.

It is the first time these rents have headed south since Q4 2003, it said. They also contracted 0.8 per cent year-on-year, reversing their 5.4 per cent growth in Q4 2007.

Prime suburban rents dipped a more moderate one per cent quarter-on-quarter to an average of $29 psf pm in Q4 2008. The last time quarterly suburban mall rents contracted was Q2 1999. For the whole of 2008, they grew one per cent.

'Retail rents were resilient in previous economic downturns (such as Sars, and the Asian Financial Crisis) due to limited supply then,' CBRE said in a report released yesterday.

'But going forward, weak demand is likely to coincide with an increase in supply. As such, downward pressure on rents is unavoidable. We expect renegotiations to commence in 2009, after the Chinese New Year festivities.'

The main danger to rents, analysts say, is the new supply of retail space set to kick in over the next two years. According to CBRE, known supply for 2009-2012 is 6.36 million sq ft, with most of this - 80.5 per cent or 5.13 million sq ft - completing in 2009 and 2010.

'Developers and landlords, especially those with developments along Orchard Road, face increasing competition from the imminent supply of new malls, shops within the integrated resorts as well as refurbished shopping centres,' CBRE noted.

Retailers are now more resistant to further rental increases, as local consumers, spooked by the prospects of unemployment and lower wages, have cut spending, it said. In addition, the economic recession has led to a drop in tourist arrivals.

In the light of this, CBRE reckons that prime Orchard Road rents could contract 5-10 per cent in the first half of 2009. At prime suburban malls a 2-3 per cent decline is likely, it said. Suburban rents will fall more moderately due to a ready population catchment, steady demand for basic necessities and comparatively less competition from new supply.

However, some resilient retailers could take the opportunity presented by lower rents and costs to expand their retail network, CBRE said.

'Certain trades will continue to thrive, despite the gloomy outlook. Supermarkets, hypermarts and F&B in suburban malls might emerge more hardy, particularly those with unique F&B themed eateries,' it said. -    2009 January 1    BUSINESS TIMES

Orchard Road is Singapore’s premier shopping street and a popular destination for visitors. Stretching close to 2km, Orchard Road today has about 800,000sqm gross floor area (GFA) of shopping and entertainment attractions, complemented by hotels, offices and residences along wide shady boulevards. Coupled with a lively street culture, Orchard Road offers a unique shopping experience in a tropical setting.- URA

Orchard Road has become the world's 13th most expensive shopping street - up a notch from last year - after rental rates in the area rose more than 13 per cent. Average rental rates in Orchard Road have risen to $39 per square foot per month, said Cushman & Wakefield in its annual Main Streets Across the World report. This is up 13.2 per cent from last year, making Orchard Road the 9th most expensive retail street in Asia [sic The World].

'The strong performance of the economy, increase in tourism and overall optimism in Singapore have led to increased consumer spending and contributed to the vibrant retail scene we have seen since the economy recovered in 2004,' said Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield in Singapore. Global brands and local retailers are jostling for a prime presence in Singapore's key retail hub, he added. 'With the limited supply in Orchard Road, there is only one direction rentals can go - up.'

Main Streets Across the World tracks the rental rates of 233 of the world's top shopping locations in 47 countries. Its global league table is drawn up by taking the most expensive location in each country. The report showed that rental rates in 97 per cent of the locations have stayed stable or risen in the past year. The data is based on rent on a standard unit with a frontage of six metres and depth of 25 metres.

The region showing the highest rental increases is Asia, where rents are up 20 per cent in June 2006 from a year ago. The most expensive retail area in Asia is Causeway Bay in Hong Kong, where rents are at an average US$1,134 per square foot per year. Causeway Bay is also the second most expensive area in the world, retaining its 2005 spot.

Tokyo's Ginza district stayed as the world's 5th most expensive area, with average rentals of US$652 per sq ft per year.

Seoul's Myeongdong district fell from 8th place to the 9th, as rentals stood at US$376 per sq ft per year.

The area which saw the largest increase was Khan Market, in New Delhi. It rose 17 places to become the 24th most expensive street in the world.

Sebastian Skiff, Cushman & Wakefield's head of retail in Asia, said: 'With many of the markets still considered to be emerging economies for international retail, we foresee this upward trend in rents continuing this year, matched with an improvement in the quality of product.'

The world's most expensive street was New York's 5th Avenue, which averages rentals of US$1,350 per sq ft per year.  -    2006 October 26    SINGAPORE BUSINESS TIMES   

With average retail rental of more than US$2,600 per square metre per year, Orchard Road has the world's 14th most expensive retail space, up from number 15 last year.  That is according to annual report by Cushman and Wakefield.

Topping the list is New York City's 5th Avenue, followed by Causeway Bay in Hong Kong. Champs Elysees in Paris is third, followed by London's New Bond Street. Tokyo's Ginza ranks fifth.

The report tracks retail rents in the world's top 237 shopping locations across 47 countries.

Among the findings for Singapore's famous shopping street, Orchard Road witnessed an increase of 6.3% in rent from a year ago.

On average, rental there cost an average of S$34 per square foot a month.

Cushman says shops in Paragon, Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City which have a street view can fetch rental of as much as $50 per square foot.

It says the high rental rates are due to strong demand from local and international retailers for prime retail space.

Said Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield: "This is due to Orchard Road's solid reputation as one of the premier shopping belts in the world.

"Foreign retailers all know Orchard Road. Everybody wants to have a piece of Orchard Road and to set up shop here."

Cushman noted that prime retail rents in Singapore have been on the uptrend over the past five years and are expected to continue its northward ascent for the next 12 months.

Recently, the Urban Redevelopment Authority released two sites along Orchard Road to be developed into retail space.

Cushman says this will be a welcome relief particularly for retailers in search for prime space.  -   2005 CHANNEL NEWS ASIA 

Orchard Road moves up a spot from last year as average monthly rents rose 6.3%

Orchard Road is now the world's 14th most expensive location in which to rent retail space, up a notch from its 15th position a year ago, according to an annual report by Cushman & Wakefield's European division.

Average retail rents on Orchard Road rose 6.3 per cent year-on-year to $34 psf a month. New York's Fifth Avenue maintained its top ranking in the report by Cushman & Wakefield Healey & Baker. In second position was Hong Kong's Causeway Bay, overtaking the Avenue des Champs Elysees in Paris. Rents on Causeway Bay jumped 90 per cent year on year.

Shanghai's Nanjing Road (East) was ranked 20th and Suria KLCC in the Malaysian capital, 26th.

The report, Main Streets Across the World 2005, tracks retail rents in the world's top 237 shopping locations across 47 countries. The report's global league table is drawn up by taking the most expensive location in each of the countries monitored.

Commenting on Singapore moving up a notch in this year's survey, Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield's Singapore office, said: 'Demand from local and international retailers for prime shopping centres remains strong. This has pushed occupancy levels to the brink of full capacity for these malls. Prime retail rents have been on the uptrend over the past five years and are expected to continue their northward ascent for the next 12 months.'

He noted that the government's recent tender launches for two sites along Orchard Road is 'a welcome relief, particularly for retailers in search for prime space'.

Projects on the new sites at Orchard and Somerset MRT stations are expected to generate about 780,000 sq ft of retail space from 2009 onwards. However, Mr Han does not expect the new supply to soften prime retail rents on Orchard Road over the medium term.

'This is due to Orchard Road's solid reputation as one of the premier shopping belts in the world. Everybody wants to have a piece of Orchard Road and to set up shop here.' - by Kalpana Rashiwala     SINGAPORE BUSINESS TIMES    27 Oct 2005

Orchard Road is the world's 15th most expensive shopping street. Fashion capitals New York and Paris clung to their pole positions, while Hong Kong came in third, according to a survey by Cushman & Wakefield.

In its annual survey, Main Streets Across The World, Cushman & Wakefield gave the lowdown on retail rents in 45 international shopping cities. Orchard Road was the 9th most expensive spot in Asia-Pacific to set up shop with rents of US$2,363 per square metre a year.

But the city-state's main shopping strip trailed behind Hong Kong's Causeway Bay, Sydney's Pitt Street Mall, Tokyo's Ginza, Seoul's Mydeongdong and Kangnam Station, Brisbane's Queen Street Mall, Melbourne's Bourke Street and Tokyo's Omotesando. It is, however, ahead of Tokyo's fashionable Shibuya.

'Most countries in the region have experienced solid economic recovery over the past 12 months and many international retailers have reacted quickly to expand their presence in places like Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore,' said C&W's Asia research director John Su. 'Rentals in these cities have resulted in significant increases since the middle of last year.'

Rents in New York zoomed past the US$10,000 psm a year mark to US$10,226. Coming a distant second is Paris's famed Avenue des Champs Elysees lined with its designer wares at US$7,648. Rents in Dublin's Grafton Street leapt to US$4,103, putting it in 5th spot, up from 10th position in 2003.

In Asia-Pacific, Singapore was ahead of Kuala Lumpur's Suria KLCC, Mumbai's Linking Road, Western, and Bangkok's City Centre. Singapore slipped one spot down to 15th from 14th last year. Malls along the Orchard Road stretch include Ngee Ann City, Paragon, Wisma Atria and Centrepoint.

'Despite the healthy increase of 9.6 per cent in Singapore's rents to US$31.50 per square foot a month, the other cities have outperformed that, resulting in a one-notch drop,' said C&W Singapore managing director Donald Han. 'For example, Hong Kong's Causeway Bay went up by 50 per cent and Tokyo's Omotesando jumped 70 per cent.'

C&W said rents rose in two-thirds of the 45 locations surveyed with falls in about 10 per cent.

'The inflationary effect of rising oil prices will put further upward pressure on interest rates,' said C&W head of research David Hutchings.

'This may impact countries where debt is running at high levels as shoppers will not have so much money in their pockets to spend.

'Saying that, the outlook is still more optimistic than a year ago; the number of retailers looking for a unit in the world's super league of shopping streets shows no sign of abating, while retailers continue to flow into emerging markets in Europe and Asia.' - by Andrea Tan     SINGAPORE BUSINESS TIMES   6 Nov 2004

LANDOWNERS

268 Orchard Rd may spice up shopping belt

Ngee Ann Development (NAD) is said to be considering a redevelopment of 268 Orchard Road, which it bought for $135 million last year from CapitaLand.

Sources told Business Times that it's also exploring the possibility of teaming up with owners of prominent neighbouring properties, including Crown Prince Hotel, The Heeren and Wellington Building, for a bigger redevelopment scheme fronting Orchard Road.

'However, it may be difficult to persuade neighbouring owners who may have their own priorities and agendas, to join forces. So NAD may have to be prepared to proceed with a redevelopment on its own,' says a market watcher.

The Heeren is a relatively new project and its owner, the Swee Cheng group, is unlikely to see the economics of redevelopment for now. However, Swee Cheng also owns Wellington Building. This ageing asset, which is on the other side of 268 Orchard Road, is ripe for redevelopment.

In front of Wellington Building is Crown Prince Hotel, with frontages on both Orchard and Bideford roads. The 21-year-old hotel, which has some retail space, could also use a revamp. Crown Prince Hotel recently saw a new stakeholder emerging when a consortium headed by US-based fund manager Farallon Capital Management settled $180 million of debt which had been extended to the hotel's owner.

It remains to be seen if the consortium's stated plan of injecting fresh funds to reinvigorate Crown Prince Hotel could include partnering NAD for a joint redevelopment with 268 Orchard Road, which is 32 years old.

'This would be similar to how Singapore Press Holdings merged the Paragon and Promenade buildings to create more street-front space and a bigger presence on Orchard Road,' says a seasoned property consultant.

A joint redevelopment of the four properties - 268 Orchard Rd, Crown Prince Hotel, The Heeren and Wellington Building with a combined site area of about 136,000 sq ft - could yield a new project with a maximum gross floor area, or GFA, of about 700,000 sq ft.

This includes a 5 per cent bonus plot ratio that the combined site would qualify because of its size, says a property consultant. Plot ratio specifies how much GFA can be built on a site. All four sites are zoned for commercial use under the 2003 Master Plan.

Some market watchers went so far as to suggest NAD could extend its tie-up to include The Ascott Group's Cairnhill Place behind the four properties. A combined integrated development of all five sites - possibly including a residential or service residence component - could generate a maximum GFA of about one million sq ft.

NAD is a joint venture between Ngee Ann Kongsi and Japan's Takashimaya group and is the developer of the massive Ngee Ann City project in the 1990s. In the event that none of its neighbours are willing to join forces or sell their properties to NAD for a redevelopment, the question is whether NAD would then go ahead with redeveloping 268 Orchard Road on its own.

The existing building has already optimised the site's development potential. In fact, property sources say the 20-storey building's present GFA of about 185,000 sq ft exceeds the 146,636 sq ft maximum allowed for the plot under the 2003 Master Plan.

Property consultants reckon that in such a case, the authorities would usually allow a redevelopment scheme to retain the existing GFA.

Even so, NAD could still benefit from redeveloping 268 Orchard Road if it manages to extract more net lettable area from the same GFA. In addition, a spanking new building should be able to fetch higher rents.

Most leases at 268 Orchard Road expire by year's end, with the rest ending early next year. It would be opportune for NAD to begin a redevelopment after that - if it decides to go ahead.

Or it could wait longer to persuade some of its neighbours to do a joint redevelopment. In that case, NAD could start signing leases again for 268 Orchard Road until it's time to knock down the building.

The property's most prominent tenant is Citibank, occupying the basement, first, second and 16th floors. Its lease expires in November. The bank has already inked a lease to take up four levels at MacDonald House, also on Orchard Road, across the road from Dhoby Ghaut MRT station.   -  by Kalpana Rashiwala    BUSINESS TIMES    31 Jan 05

The Brunei Investment Agency (BIA) could be the biggest winner of all the building owners in the Orchard/Scotts Road area if it redevelops its two Scotts Road properties to their maximum potential, according to a study by Jones Lang LaSalle.

BIA owns Grand Hyatt Singapore and, across the road, the Royal Plaza on Scotts hotel and the adjoining DFS store. If it were to redevelop these two sites to the limit allowed under the current Master Plan, it could generate an additional 424,100 sq ft in gross floor area (GFA) beyond the buildings' combined existing GFA of 1.2 million sq ft.

Far East Organization emerged second in a ranking of property owners who stand to gain the most additional space from redevelopment. The property giant and subsidiary proprietors (for buildings in which Far East has sold some strata titled units) own properties that can generate an additional 370,400 sq ft from redevelopment.

The seven buildings in the Far East stable which JLL included in its survey are Far East Plaza, Lucky Plaza, Far East Shopping Centre, Orchard Plaza, Orchard Shopping Centre, Orchard Parade Hotel and Orchard Parksuites. The last two are wholly owned by Far East-controlled vehicles.

Tang Holdings and listed retailer CK Tang, which own the Singapore Marriott Hotel and Tangs department store complex, ranked third. They could potentially build 236,000 sq ft extra space from redeveloping their prime site at the junction of Orchard and Scotts roads.

Hotel Properties (which owns Forum, Hilton Singapore and Le Meridien hotel and mall) and Hong Fok (owner of International Building) were in fourth and fifth spots.

Who's the biggest winner in terms of percentage increase in GFA? Great Eastern Life Property Services, whose Orchard Emerald could be redeveloped into a project with 130 per cent more GFA than the existing building.

Hong Fok (for International Building) and Tang Holdings/CK Tang were in number two and three positions respectively, with potential gains of 73 per cent and 37 per cent in GFA. They were followed by BIA, whose potential increase in floor area for its two Scotts Road properties amounts to 35 per cent. Bonvests Holdings and its chairman Henry Ngo could see a 25 per cent enhancement from redeveloping Liat Towers and Orchard Building.

While these buildings stand to reap fairly good gains in floor area from redevelopment, many other buildings in the Orchard/Scotts Road belt, are already developed to the maximum GFA allowed under Master Plan 2003 - or very close to it.

In some cases, the existing floor area is more than the current limit stipulated. In such cases, however, URA may allow a new development to retain the existing GFA, subject to conditions. Factoring in all of this, JLL Singapore managing director Yu Lai Boon said that on the whole, building owners in Singapore's prime shopping district stand to achieve an increase of only 1.3 million sq ft or about 7 per cent in GFA if they were to all redevelop their properties to the Master Plan limit.

This hardly leaves owners with an incentive to redevelop - considering the huge capital expenditure involved and the income they would have to forgo while their properties are being redeveloped.

A developer summed things up: 'Buildings on Orchard Road are either safeguarded as hotels and therefore can't be redeveloped for other uses, or are strata-titled with fragmented ownership, making it a tough proposition for redevelopment, or have maxed out (or nearly maxed out) in permissible gross floor area. So it's not viable to redevelop.' JLL's study also showed that Far East and its subsidiary proprietors are the top owners of buildings in the Orchard area, with a combined 2.6 million sq ft for the seven properties included in the study.

In second spot was Ngee Ann Development which owns 73 per cent of Ngee Ann City and which earlier this year bought 268 Orchard Road. The two buildings add up to 2.3 million sq ft GFA, although 27 per cent of Ngee Ann City was last year securitised in a deal spearheaded by German insurer Ergo. Overseas Union Enterprise (owner of Mandarin Singapore), BIA and HPL ranked third, fourth and fifth.   - by Kalpana Rashiwala    SINGAPORE BUSINESS TIMES    28 Oct 2004

	The Orchard Turn Effect Singapore Spending Power World Retail
More oomph for Orchard:  URA has released prime site at Orchard Turn

S'pore to sell more Orchard Road land

Singapore said on Tuesday it would sell more land along its prime Orchard Road shopping strip for a retail mall, signalling rising confidence in its reviving property market.

PREVIOUS SALES In December, Singapore's CapitaLand and Hong Kong's Sun Hung Kai Properties secured a 1.8-hectare site for $1.38 billion or $10,976.25 per sq m, fighting off competition from the likes of Indonesia's Lippo and Cheung Kong (Holdings). The second plot along Orchard Road, adjacent to the site currently on offer, was sold in January to privately-held developer Far East Organisation for $421 million or $11,682.62 per sq m. >> ORCHARD TURN

This would be the Government's third commercial land sale along the thoroughfare in the last six months. The last two sites set record prices and pulled in $1.8 billion (US$1.11 billion) for state coffers.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said the 0.7-hectare plot above the Somerset subway station would be placed on its reserve list and will be up for auction only when a buyer places an opening bid that surpasses an undisclosed minimum level set by the government.

At least 60 percent of the maximum 39,410 square metre gross floor area of the development will be for retail and entertainment use. -- REUTERS

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