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Haven't
a few of us met a few too many spoiled 'princelings' raised in the Chinese
tradition who aren't good communicators, have repressed emotions, low esteem or
other 'issues'? Perhaps their Mama's have done them a disservice by
'rescuing' them a bit too often when they were young. By the time
they are in their 30's, 40's, 50's
or even older, the habits have formed and its none too attractive. And they wonder why some of the good
girls are not too interested to take them on as spouses? In
the backs of our minds we wonder whether the prospect has the strength to
navigate the up's and downs of Life with them. That's the bottom
line.
The following article is refreshing news and startling
statistics on the odds in favour of
women.
China: Bachelor bomb
In a trend fraught with troubling political and social
implications, China will soon find itself with a marriage-age population
remarkably out of balance, with about 23 million more young men than women
available for them to marry in this decade and the next - what demographers term
a "marriage squeeze."
This impending surplus of unattached young men could be
a driving force behind increased crime, explosive epidemics of HIV and other
sexually transmitted diseases, and even international threats to the security of
other nations. Yet the Chinese government has done little to address its
demographic destiny.
The coming squeeze is largely the legacy of the
government's one-child policy, along with societal modernization. As a result,
the nation's fertility rate has fallen dramatically, from around 6 children per
woman in the 1960s to around 1.7 currently.
But the society's strong cultural preference for sons
has not changed. In recent decades, ready access to ultrasound technology has
enabled parents to learn the sex of their unborn children and has led to
widespread female-specific abortion.
The demographic consequence is now apparent. Most
societies exhibit biologically natural sex ratios at birth of around 105 baby
boys born for every 100 baby girls, yielding roughly equal numbers of
prospective brides and grooms as generations reach marriageable age. This normal
pattern emerges where human interventions don't disturb biology.
But China has departed markedly from this natural
pattern since the 1980s. Its sex ratio at birth has hovered between 115 and 120
baby boys for every 100 baby girls in recent years, a level that renders roughly
one of every eight men in a generation "surplus." Many Chinese refer
to the surplus boys as guang gun (bare branches).
Past societies with large numbers of unattached men have
on occasion turned to a more authoritarian political system, perceiving threats
of violence. Such societies have also sought to harness their surplus of men by
recruiting excess males into military occupations, pursuing expansionist
policies aimed at developing unexplored territories or colonizing neighboring
ones.
The tensions associated with so many bachelors in
China's big cities might tempt its future leaders to mobilize this excess
manpower and go pick a fight, or invade another country. China is already
co-opting poor unmarried young men into the People's Liberation Army and the
paramilitary People's Armed Police.
No less disquieting are the social dynamics accompanying
a severe marriage squeeze. In all likelihood, millions of young, poor Chinese
bachelors never will marry. Many will migrate from rural areas to urban
destinations, patronizing prostitutes there. In doing so, these unattached men
could turn China's HIV epidemic - now confined to certain high-risk populations
- into a more generalized one by creating "bridging" populations from
high- to low-risk individuals. Such male bridging populations have fueled HIV
epidemics in Cambodia and sub-Saharan Africa.
China's legal marriage age - 22 years for men, 20 for
women - means that more than 23.5 million young men (by our estimate) will be
unable to find Chinese wives during the period from 2000 to 2021, owing to the
inadequate supply of Chinese women in the marriage market. Neither a spontaneous
shift toward a later average age at first marriage nor lax enforcement on the
supply side to allow teenage brides would substantially lessen this market
imbalance.
Although the 23 million-plus surplus of boys exceeds the
entire population of most countries, it represents but a tiny fraction of all
1.3 billion Chinese. However, these millions of "bare branches" will
be concentrated in a generation born over a short 20-year period and living
mostly in the cities of a largely rural China.
The surplus of boys and shortage of girls "made in
China" could soon become not just a concern for China, but for the world. -
by Dudley L. Poston Jr. and Peter A. Morrison
International
Herald Tribune 14 September
2005
Dudley L. Poston is a professor of
sociology at Texas A&M University. Peter A. Morrison is a demographer with
RAND Corp
Some concerns though about Chinese men:
Worked to death?
Ted Sun, the acting CEO of one of China’s largest web
portals and online gaming sites, NetEase, died on September 18th. Mr Sun,
38, had been on leave from the company since last April, and was reportedly
being treated in Hong Kong for intestinal and stomach disorders. The cause of
his illness has not been revealed, but there is widespread speculation that the
young businessman died of “karoshi” (a Japanese word for overwork).
According to the results of an internet survey published the day before Mr
Sun’s death, 70% of Shanghai's white-collar workers have physical and mental
health problems. The survey polled more than 2,500 office workers, mostly
between 25 and 40 years old. Experts believe the poor health of workers in the
city is due to work pressure, long hours and lack of information on fitness,
nutrition and disease prevention. - ECONOMIST.com
October 2005
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